Latest polls for the 2026 California gubernatorial primary show a highly competitive and unsettled race with no clear front-runner. The five leading candidates—comprising two Republicans and three Democrats—are effectively in a “virtual tie” within the margin of error.
Recent Primary Polling Data
The following table summarizes results from the most recent major polls conducted in February 2026:
| Candidate | Party | PPIC (Feb 26) | Emerson/Inside CA (Feb 18) | IVC Media (Feb 20) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | Republican | 14% | 17% | 13% |
| Eric Swalwell | Democrat | 11% | 14% | 18% |
| Chad Bianco | Republican | 12% | 14% | 23% |
| Katie Porter | Democrat | 13% | 10% | 13% |
| Tom Steyer | Democrat | 10% | 9% | 11% |
| Undecided | – | 10% | 21% | – |
Key Takeaways & Trends
- Republican Consolidation: Following the withdrawal of Republican candidate Jon Slavet, conservative support is consolidating around Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.
- Democratic Splintering: The Democratic field remains crowded with at least nine candidates, including Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Betty Yee. This fragmentation has led to concerns among party leaders about a potential “lockout” from the general election.
- Undecided Voters: A significant portion of the electorate (up to 21%) remains undecided, making the race highly volatile as the June 2 primary approaches.
- Regional Dynamics: Polling shows regional divides, with Katie Porter performing strongly in Orange and San Diego counties, while Chad Bianco leads in the Inland Empire.
Election Timeline
- Filing Deadline: March 6, 2026
- Primary Election: June 2, 2026
- General Election: November 3, 2026